"Met Office forecasts are costing businesses in Devon millions"
We all love a day out at the beach and whilst Devon has some of the best in the UK the temperamental weather can sometimes cause hesitancy for families when it comes to committing to things like staycations, weekends away and beach days out. The Met Office certainly has their hands full!
Curious to see how accurate the weather forecasts really are, we compared Met Office predictions with actual rainfall in Woolacombe, and got in touch with a local business to learn more about how the Met Office forecasts could be “costing Devon businesses millions”.
The Met Office got the forecast ‘wrong’ over 40% of the time
The results were surprising: across the 53 days we tracked, over 40% had a forecasted 10% or higher chance of rain and on 16 of the days not a single drop fell. We came to this conclusion following weekly benchmarks of the Met Office weather forecast for Woolacombe a week in advance and then compared this to the Woolacombe data from Weathercloud.
Okay so it’s not that the forecasts are ‘wrong’, but the way they’re presented could potentially be construed as misleading.
Looking at the daily forecast average, we often see a considerable chance of rain. But even when rain does arrive, it’s frequently in the evening or for just an hour or two. That detail matters. If you're planning a beach day and see a 40 percent chance of rain for Saturday a week ahead, you might cancel. But what if that rain isn't due until after 6pm?
Take Wednesday 26th February. A week out, the Met Office forecast showed a 50 percent average chance of rain, with 80 percent at 09:00 and 60 percent at 12:00. The reality? All rain fell between 04:00 and 07:00. The rest of the day was dry.
Or Friday 28th March. Forecasts showed over a 40 percent average chance of rain throughout the day. What actually fell? Just 1.2mm at midday. Hardly enough to dampen a deckchair.
Would you have made plans to visit Woolacombe based on those forecasts?
Tourism is worth £1.6 billion a year to Devon and supports over 50,000 jobs. When visitors stay home based on forecasts that may appear misleading, local businesses feel it. From beach cafés to B&Bs, the impact is real.
What impact does the weather forecast have on beach days?
Earlier in April we put the question to our customers to see at what point on a weather forecast from 10% to 100% chance of rain would they cancel a trip to the beach and the data showed some interesting insights:
Of the 202 followers polled, 24% said they would cancel their plans at a 40% chance of rain and an equal 24% chance said they would only cancel at a 100% chance. So people are willing to put up with some drizzle, but this of course depends on the type of visit you are making to the beach. The data does show that over 41% of respondents would likely cancel beach plans if there was a 10-40% chance of rain, so there is clear evidence that a less favourable weather forecast can lead to a drop in footfall for beach businesses, even if the actual weather is perfectly clear on the day.
“It’s costing millions with inaccurate and negative forecasting”
Woolacombe Bay Holiday Parks got in touch with Rick Turner, Director at The Big Sheep (a Devon amusement park), who threatened to sue the Met Office for the material damage they were doing to the tourist industry:
“Their daily forecasts are frequently incorrect but the ones I really object to are the week ahead ones when tourists are looking for last minute holiday destinations - these seem to be invariably wrong and misleading. My message to the forecasters is to either get it right or don’t do longer term forecasts which are costing my North Devon theme park £100,000’s and the whole industry millions of pounds each year in lost bookings and business. Talk about the areas which are going to be enjoying dry and sunny weather rather than looking for the rain which you find exciting to be forecasting and often incorrectly!”
So we know that rain makes tourists think twice about going to the beach and visiting coastal towns, and we know that longer term Met Office forecasts often forecast considerable chances of rain, incorrectly which begs the question, should the Met Office update their messaging?
Should the Met Office update messaging?
Perhaps it's time the Met Office took steps to communicate forecast timing and context more clearly, especially for longer-range predictions. When rain is forecast mainly for the evening, this should be highlighted more clearly within the weather forecast.
Equally flipping the messaging when rain is forecasted (e.g. there is a 80% chance of clear weather) as opposed to focusing on the chances of rain could create a strong psychological shift away from the potentially negative outcome.
Having a feature on the Met Office website that shows actual rainfall and weather conditions vs predictions based on tools such as the network offered by Weathercloud would give the public and at a glance insight into how accurate the forecast was, helping them with decision making in the future.
We got in touch with the Met Office but they declined to comment.
*Data available on request
Our holiday parks are great come rain or shine!
Woolacombe Bay Holiday Parks' Sales & Marketing Director, Kevin Darvill offered the below comment on the findings:
“Our guests come to Woolacombe Bay Holiday Parks for the beach, the views, and the great British holiday experience - and we’re proud to offer just that, rain or shine. But it’s clear from the data that even a small chance of rain in a forecast can change people’s plans, and if the day turns out dry families can feel they made unnecessary alterations to their plans.
What matters isn’t just if it might rain but when, and that detail is often lost in longer-range forecasts and even on the day with coastal microclimates like the one we have along the Atlantic Ocean coast.
The more accurately people can plan around the weather, the more they can make the most of their time here. Fortunately, our Parks are packed with things to do whatever the weather, from pools and spas to indoor play zones and entertainment and even lodges with hot tubs. Plus we hope for sun but plan for rain so we incorporate more undercover areas and attractions with sliding roofs like our brand new Wavesurfer surfing simulator. So even if the forecast looks a little grey, there’s always a great day ahead at Woolacombe Bay Holiday Parks.”
*The above research is not attempting to discredit or critique the fantastic service the Met Office provides and naturally weather forecasts are very hard to get accurate and the chances of rain are always ever just chances.
The research does aim to offer a commentary on the issue that local businesses may face if people decide not to go to the beach when chances of adverse weather conditions are significantly raised.
We thank the Met Office for providing publicly accessible detailed forecasts and Weathercloud for providing a platform to share accurate weather data. The full weather data we have benchmarked can be found here.
ENDS
About Woolacombe Bay Holiday Parks
Woolacombe Bay Holiday Parks is one of the leading operators of holiday parks within Devon and the UK. A family-run business, they are passionate about reinvesting back into their Parks so that the customer gets the best possible holiday at a reasonable price. They offer caravans, lodges and camping/touring pitches so you can find the right accommodation for your stay. Their wide range of onsite activities, entertainment, bars and restaurants make for popular family breaks.
Contact:
For more information on the story (journalists and media) please contact Woolacombe Bay Holiday Parks’ PR representative Thomas Dummer.
